Department or Program


Additional Department or Program (if any)


Primary Wellesley Thesis Advisor

Catherine Wearing


Conditional credence is an important concept in many areas of philosophy. However, little consensus has been achieved regarding its semantics and ontology. In this thesis I shall sketch a contextualist suppositional account of conditional credence by drawing insights from two seemingly disjoint debates: the foundational debate on the relationship between conditional and unconditional probabilities, and the semantic debate on the relationship between conditional probability and probabilities of conditionals. I argue that, for a given pair of propositions A and B, the conditional credence one ought to have for B given that A - P(B|A) - may depend on contextual parameters like the way in which we mentally represent the extensions of as well as the stochastic relationships between A and B.